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Initially, Trump seemed to adopt a firm position on Ukraine. After delivering warnings of "severe ramifications" last August should Putin continued obstructing truce discussions, he eventually imposed considerable sanctions on the Russian two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially affected Putin's capacity to finance his aggression in the region.

Yet, with his newly presented detailed peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly developed by American and Russian diplomats without Ukrainian or EU participation, he has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Military Action

This proposal would effectively reward Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite bold declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative actually compromise that very sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his corporate background, the former president continues to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, like handing Russia a section of Ukrainian territory will appease the leader. Yet, Putin's invasion is not merely about occupying a destroyed area of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to weaken it so it stops functions as an appealing example for the Russian people of the democratic governance that Putin's growing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Giveaways

While freezing in position the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would compel Ukraine to abandon the entire this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a lengthy period of fighting, this surrender would make Ukrainian military defenses dangerously weakened.

The area is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that are a essential impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, providing Putin a clear route to Kyiv in case he subsequently decide to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would make additional conflict easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's plan sets no similar constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's chosen by the people administration as Nazis, Trump's proposal asserts: "Every Nazi belief system and practices must be condemned and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this point, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a truce. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal has Russia commit not to "attack other states" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". But taking into account that Putin has broken similar treaties in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should we trust this commitment on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on international protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "immediate unified military response" in case Russia resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the details include vague to alarming. The proposal would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent Nato members from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Russia from replenishing his reduced forces, rearming, and reinvading.

International Reaction

Another side agreement according to sources would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "major, intentional, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. However unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable defense against renewed hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Western powers, such as Trump, to act militarily to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not