Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.