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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the early hours of Saturday marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.